Niche approach to the green transition

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

March 18 , 2025

15 minute read

Eavesdrop on any conversation about sustainable mobility and the talk will likely be dominated by electric and hydrogen vehicles.

For those following market trends, it is perhaps easy to understand why. Globally there are now more than 40 million electric vehicles (EVs) in use, up from just 26 million as recently as 2022.[1] In 2023, EV battery demand grew 40% across Europe and America, and 35% in China.[2] Hydrogen, meanwhile, has become an eco-friendly alternative for commercial vehicles such as trucks, vans and buses. It may remain niche in terms of numbers, with less than a million hydrogen vehicles on the road worldwide, but since 2017 sales have maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.5%.^[3]^{, [4]}

However, by focusing on these two dominating technologies, are we getting a true picture of the diversity of possibilities for sustainable mobility? Are there other, less high-profile technological solutions that could play an equally pivotal role in a more sustainable and equitable mobility ecosystem?

Synthetic technology fuels hope for the future

Take synthetic fuels (or e-fuels), for example, could they make a tangible contribution to global ambitions for decarbonizing transport?

Synthetic carbon neutral fuels demand just two raw materials to manufacture, and both happen to be abundant in nature already: Water and carbon dioxide (CO₂). Better still, synthetic fuels can be used in many existing vehicles, from cars to trucks or even aircraft.

In their most efficient form, these ‘e-fuels’ use electricity from renewable sources (such as wind or solar farms) to separate hydrogen particles from oxygen in water, creating renewable hydrogen. CO₂sequestered from the air using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology can be combined with this renewable hydrogen to create zero-emission fuels as output.

Benefits are twofold. Firstly, the process is efficient – synthetic fuels are compatible with existing combustion vehicles and infrastructure because they share the same physiochemical profile. Secondly, they could contribute to the ongoing decarbonization of transport and aviation. Such progress is vital in a sector where emissions grew by more than 250 Mt CO₂ in 2022, a 3% annual growth.[5]

The market share for synthetic fuels remains small, its sale limited to a specialist number of outlets traditionally serving the motorsport and classic vehicle segments. However, it could become a forecourt staple in the future, with the market size potentially reaching US$ 22.5 billion by 2031.[6]

Why stop there? What about fuels based on raw materials from other sectors – so-called renewable fuels? These can help decarbonize industries where electrification is challenging: Think aviation, shipping or heavy-duty freight.

Renewable biofuels such as bionaphtha, biopropane, and hydrotreated vegetable oil can all be manufactured from common waste matter including animal fats, biomass, biogas, vegetable oil, or even forestry and farming detritus. Similarly, a new generation of molecular recycling plants can convert solid municipal waste into renewable methanol, or biomethanol. Exploiting waste is, of course, a key component of the ‘circular economy’ necessary for managing our looming environmental transition.

Encouragingly, some of these technologies are at least part-proven already. The petrol we pump into our cars at service stations routinely contains at least 10% sustainable fuels, without many of us even realizing.[7]

The same technology can also be deployed to create ‘biojet’ fuels designed for aviation, largely made using organic waste such as vegetable oils and animal fats. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are rapidly receiving legislative backing at regional level, such as the European Union’s RefuelEU Aviation initiative[8].

Looking ahead, SAFs may require further governmental backing to prosper, since its share of the current aviation fuel mix is a negligible 2%.

RefuelEU Aviation aims to increase uptake dramatically, targeting 20% SAF use for all European flights by 2035, rising to 63% by no later than 2050.[9]

Autogas, or liquified petroleum gas (LPG), presents another potential avenue for greening mobility. While not a full zero-emission solution, it could play a valuable bridging role in the net zero journey: a car running on autogas typically generates 81% fewer particulate number (PN) emissions, and 21% less CO₂output, than conventional internal combustion technology.[10]

Autogas is produced via one of two methods. One involves the fractional distillation of propane and butane, an ‘upstream’ process conducted in natural gas fields; the other is a ‘downstream’ process with crude oil distilled in refineries. Either way, the finished product can be liquified for ease of transportation by compressing the gas to between 3 and 10 bar of pressure.

Although not yet available at all forecourts, autogas use is on the increase, rising 50% in the last decade and now powering millions of vehicles worldwide.[11] It is both non-toxic and economical, offering savings of up to 40% per tank compared to traditional fuels.

Existing combustion engines can readily be adapted to use autogas. But versatility is far from its only selling point. Cars running on autogas are permitted to drive in many cities worldwide without attracting pollution tariffs. It has also shown itself to be an efficient long-distance fuel, offering potential motoring ranges of up to 1,200 km depending on tank size.

Of course, not all technologies have to be ‘new’ to be revolutionary. Sometimes, they can be ambitious adaptations of existing resources.

Ammonia, for example, has long been renowned as a fertilizer in the agriculture industry. However, it could have an even more promising future as a transportation fuel and help to truly transform the long-term landscape for niche mobility technologies.

Fertilizer to fuel: Ammonia’s transformative journey

The word might elicit a shrug from the majority of motorists today, but ammonia is destined to play a key role in any future decarbonized transport system. A 2021, International Energy Agency (IEA) report states that hydrogen-based fuels such as ammonia must account for up to 30% of transport fuels by mid-century to hit internationally-agreed climate goals.[12]

Ammonia production is far from green at present, the majority created commercially via the catalytic reaction of nitrogen and hydrogen at high temperatures and pressures. Its manufacture carries a heavy environmental toll, releasing almost two tons of CO₂ for every ton of ammonia produced.^[13]

But there is a better way.

Green ammonia is made using renewable energy and transported by pipeline to powerplants, where it propels turbines specially designed to accommodate green ammonia’s particular chemical profile.

This carbon-free liquid fuel could prove particularly revolutionary for the maritime logistics industry, which currently contributes around 3% of all global carbon emissions.[14]

We should not expect an overnight ammonia revolution, however. Converting powerplants to process ammonia is costly and complex – and individual engines will likewise require expensive adaptations. Together, these factors mean the potential of green ammonia technology remains largely underdeveloped.

This may change. Research suggests ammonia production could rise a hundredfold in the coming decades, as studies show it is more efficient than rival technologies for long-term mass energy storage.[15]

Processed ammonia is superior to hydrogen, for instance, which in liquid form needs storing at intense pressures and at temperatures as low as -250 degrees centigrade. Hydrogen remains dangerously explosive in gas form.

Countries as geographically diverse as The Netherlands, Japan, the UK and Australia have all been paying attention and investing heavily in ammonia infrastructure.

Japan and the UK have been operating experimental wind-powered green ammonia plants since 2018. In the USA last year, CF Industries finished installing one of the world’s largest alkaline water electrolyzers at the company’s Donaldsonville Complex in Louisiana. The US$ 100 million 20 MW alkaline facility will produce up to 20,000 tons of green ammonia annually – America’s first commercial-scale green ammonia plant.[16] Yara’s Pilbara ammonia plant in Australia, meanwhile, was generating 3,500 tons of green ammonia annually by the end of 2022, and is targeting a fiftyfold increase in output by 2030.

However, the largest new ammonia project is located in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia’s epic NEOM urban masterplan, a 10,000 square mile development at the northern tip of the Red Sea, will feature ACWA Power’s green energy production plant. Set to open in 2025, the facility is expected to produce 1.2 million tons of green ammonia per year, along with 650 tons of green hydrogen daily.[17]

Ammonia is not a magical panacea for all the world’s environmental ills. Concentrated salts left behind from the desalination process is deemed an environmental hazard. Cost also poses a challenge, with traditional ammonia currently 73% cheaper to produce than its green equivalent.[18] However, the economic sands are shifting, and experts foresee green ammonia soon becoming cheaper than its ‘dirty’ equivalent.

Government investment will prove vital for this transition. In America, a US$ 10 million government grant is funding trials for two potentially game-changing improvements to green ammonia production: One, a newly refined catalyst, the other a special absorption salt for extracting ammonia at the end of the process.[19]

Even more radical plans are under way to devise whole new ways of producing ammonia, some eliminating the need for hydrogen entirely by creating ammonia directly within an electrochemical cell.

Producing clean ammonia is, naturally, only half the battle. Ensuring engine compatibility is imperative.

Global carmaker Toyota, Abdul Latif Jameel’s longstanding mobility partner, is a leading ammonia innovator within the private sector.

The company, an early pioneer of hybrid engines, is one of several OEMs funding the development of internal combustion engines running purely on ammonia. Toyota is a 50% stakeholder in Chinese vehicle maker GAC Group. In 2023, GAC Group unveiled a prototype four-cylinder, 2.0-liter ammonia-driven engine producing 161 horsepower and 90% less carbon than unleaded petrol.[20] The GAC engines are said to overcome several of the drawbacks of ammonia, such as high combustion pressure and excessive nitrogen emissions.

Toyota and fellow ammonia proponents know that ammonia can be more readily accommodated within existing transport infrastructure than EVs. If adopted at scale, ammonia facilities are also cheaper to build and easier to maintain than rival technologies– another reason our longstanding reliance on fossil fuels might soon be consigned to history.

Solar cars and chargeable lampposts give jolt to green mobility

Conveying passengers or merchandise from A to B invariably carries some environmental price-tag, whichever of the above green technologies one advocates for. However, could we plausibly use solar power – endlessly available and inherently clean – as a propulsion technology for vehicles?

The answer is a cautious yes – so long as one accepts that it is likely to be deployed as a supplementary range extender technology, and limited to climates where the Sun is generally inclined to shine.

For solar-powered EVs it seems the future is bright, with vehicles boasting photovoltaic panels expected to constitute 10% of the EV market by 2030.[21]

Toyota is once again leading from the front. Its all-electric SUV known as the bZ4X comes with optional solar panel roofs in multiple markets, easing range anxiety by adding an additional 11.7km of driving distance per day in prime conditions.

*Toyota’s bZ4x is available with a solar panel on the roof. Image credit: Toyota*

South Korean manufacturer Hyundai launched its own solar panel-equipped car, the Sonata Hybrid, in 2019. Some 30% to 60% of the EV’s battery recharge comes from solar energy, depending on atmospheric conditions[22].

Tesla has also ventured into the category, with a ‘solar trailer’ concept for extending potential driving distances by an additional 50 miles per day.[23]

Dutch company Lightyear and US manufacturer Aptera are likewise driving innovation in the solar EV sector. Although both have had to overcome funding shortfalls in their quest to prove the viability of the technology, each hope to launch competitively priced solar production models in the near future.[24]

If covering vehicles with solar panels proves too costly or complex, or if the burden of legacy vehicles remains entrenched, another outside-the-box technology is looking to flip the problem on its head. Maybe, if a vehicle cannot conveniently support charging panels, the road surface could host them instead?

These solar roads – technically, ‘road-integrated photovoltaics’ – substitute bitumen and paving slabs with solar panels to absorb the Sun’s energy and charge nearby vehicles, homes or offices.

Test roads are already installed in France, Netherlands, China and the USA, but several hurdles are currently preventing wider roll-out: High expense, low durability, lack of tire grip, and the impossibility of changing the angle of the panels to better catch the Sun’s rays.[25]

Despite these limitations, solar roads could realistically be used to charge lampposts, meaning more eco-friendly street illumination. It is a concept which dovetails neatly with a new generation of portable electricity meters allowing EVs to be charged directly from street furniture. [26]

These devices, such as the Ubitricity smart charging cable can be kept in the trunk of a car and plugged into lampposts or bollards to solve the problem of limited urban charge points. It reportedly takes just €1,000 to convert a lamppost for smart charging – a fraction of the price of a brand new, dedicated charge unit. Little surprise that London now boasts more than 8,000 Ubitricity charge points.

Evidently, the outlook for niche mobility technologies is far more nuanced than it first appears, and there are numerous other solutions vying to assert their relevance in a segment where EVs and hydrogen-powered vehicles have until now threatened technological tunnel vision.

As long as we can imagine, dream and innovate, the quest for greener mobility will continue gathering momentum.

Technology can steer mobility to greener pastures

The race for sustainable mobility is an urgent one. Without it, we are effectively sealing our own fate in an increasingly eco-stressed world.

Time is not on our side. A report from the International Transport Forum predicts global mobility demand will soar in the coming decades, with land, sea and air transport increasing combined CO₂ outputs 70% by 2050 without rapid intervention.[27]

In May 2024, scientists expressed skepticism, en-masse, about the world hitting its +1.5C post-industrial temperature targets. In a survey in the UK’s The Guardian newspaper, most respondents shared fears that +2.5C was now a more likely scenario, or even the prospect of a +3C world.[28] Some now view a ‘semi-dystopian’ future as a dangerous possibility, citing extreme weather events, mass human suffering in the southern hemisphere and major societal disruption globally as likely side-effects. Troublingly, just 6% of scientists polled in the survey believed that +1.5C was still a realistic outcome.

This is the time for taking big swings to avert climate catastrophe. Niche mobility technologies represent one such opportunity for curtailing global carbon emissions. Enterprising investments from the private sector, with the liberty to speculate and the resources to explore bold new avenues, can help neuter the environmental cost of a mobile, interconnected society.

Fady Jameel
Vice Chairman, International
Abdul Latif Jameel

Fady Jameel, Deputy President and Vice Chairman of Abdul Latif Jameel, says that no single breakthrough will alone reverse the mobility sector’s contribution to global heating.

“Rather,” he argues, “each grand idea will form part of a complex network of responses, all entwined with complementary initiatives such as smart cities, ride-hailing apps and vehicle sharing.

“We need to be a mobile society – but do we simultaneously need to be a self-destructive and polluting one?

The days of us tipping gallons of fossil fuels into our vehicles will soon be in the rear-view mirror.

Maybe synthetic fuels, ammonia, autogas or self-charging solar cars are part of the future – or perhaps a solution surpassing all these lies on a drawing board somewhere, awaiting its eureka moment. We must remain open-minded and ready to see where technology and ingenuity guide us.”

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales

[2] https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/trends-in-electric-vehicle-batteries

[3] https://forecourttrader.co.uk/latest-news/hydrogen-vehicles-to-exceed-one-million-globally-by-2027-and-are-necessary-ev-alternative-says-new-study/668631.article

[4] https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/global-sales-of-hydrogen-vehicles-fell-by-more-than-30-last-year-with-china-becoming-world-s-largest-market/2-1-1599764

[5] https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport

[6] https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/synthetic-fuel-market-A53653

[7] https://www.repsol.com/en/energy-and-the-future/sustainable-mobility/renewable-fuels/index.cshtml

[8] https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/light/topics/fit-55-and-refueleu-aviation

[9] https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/light/topics/fit-55-and-refueleu-aviation

[10] https://auto-gas.net/why-autogas/autogas-is-clean/

[11] https://www.repsol.es/particulares/vehiculos/autogas/

[12] https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050